World growth is holding up, but the divide is widening

The global economy is still expanding, but the headline number conceals a growing gap in who benefits. In its World Economic Outlook released on October 13, the International Monetary Fund projected global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. That is not a forecast of global recession. It is, however, a warning that the ability to withstand shocks is distributed unevenly.

The IMF expects global headline inflation of 4.7% in 2026, easing to 4.1% in 2027. Higher energy and food costs are particularly difficult for import-dependent and lower-income economies. Meanwhile, countries closely connected to investment in artificial intelligence have been receiving a different kind of stimulus, with spending on technology supporting parts of trade and capital formation. A global average can therefore improve even while households in vulnerable economies struggle to recover purchasing power.

For policymakers, this creates a difficult balance. Broad price controls may appear attractive when bills rise, but they can consume public money quickly and weaken incentives to conserve scarce energy. The IMF’s analysis of past cost-of-living crises argues instead for temporary, targeted support to people most exposed to higher prices. That recommendation is not a universal formula: each government still faces different fiscal capacity, administrative systems and political choices.

The risk is that today’s divergence becomes tomorrow’s lasting inequality. If investment, financing and reliable energy are concentrated in a few economies, the apparent resilience of the world economy will not necessarily translate into resilience for everyone. These are scenarios rather than certainties: the IMF also identifies potential gains from productivity and a reduction in geopolitical tensions. The central question for 2027 is not simply whether the global growth rate rises, but how widely its benefits reach.